Understanding the real estate market
The biggest news as we wrapped up September and headed into October has been mortgage interest rates. Rates have climbed to 7.48%, up from 6.89% at the end of August and well above the 52-week low of 5.99%.
Higher interest rates continue to put pressure on an already challenging Dallas-Fort Worth housing market. But there’s more to the story than just rates.
Market Snapshot
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- Active Listings: 25,890
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- New Listings: 8,325
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- Closed Sales: 5,194
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- Average Price: $527,053
Active Listings
Active listings started at 26,409 last September, dropped to a 13-month low of 19,918 in January, and climbed back to 26,690 by July. September held at 25,890, nearly unchanged from August and just under where we were a year ago. That’s a lot of choice for buyers. It also means homes are taking longer to sell, and sellers face more competition than in years.
New Listings
New listings fell to a low of 4,980 in December, jumped to a high of 11,253 in April, and then declined four months in a row. September ticked up slightly to 8,325, about 4% below last year. Even with rates climbing, sellers haven’t stepped back. Many are still pricing based on what their neighbors received a year or two ago, and that expectation is part of why so much inventory is sitting on the market.
Closed Home Sales
This is the number to watch. After peaking at 7,245 in June, closed sales have fallen three months in a row, landing at 5,194 in September. That’s down 8.5% from August and a 10-year low for the month of September, with transactions down approximately 10% compared to September 2025. Fewer buyers are making it to the closing table, which shows just how much hesitation is in the market right now.
Average Sales Price
Prices have held up better than sales. The average sales price moved between $496,728 in January and $551,501 in June, and closed September at $527,053, up 4.4% from a year ago. The bigger issue is affordability. Over the past 20 years, DFW home prices have risen to almost 2.4 times their previous levels, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Over roughly the same period (2006 to 2024), median household incomes in Dallas, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant counties grew about 58%, based on U.S. Census Bureau data published through FRED.
What This Means for Buyers
Typically, buyers would be excited about the opportunities that come with a buyer’s market. But if we’ve learned anything over the past few years, it’s that nothing about this market has been typical.
Instead, we’re seeing tremendous hesitation from buyers. And it’s not just about interest rates. Higher home prices, rising insurance costs, and property taxes are all squeezing affordability.
This growing affordability gap is one of the biggest challenges today’s homebuyers face. The good news? Opportunities still exist for buyers in this market. With less competition and more room to negotiate, buyers may find opportunities that weren’t available a few years ago.
However, buying a home is a major financial decision. Before deciding whether now is the right time to buy, consider your job stability, family needs, financial position, and risk tolerance.
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, the struggle is real, and price reductions have become increasingly common. One of the biggest challenges we’re seeing is the gap between buyer and seller expectations. Buyers are more cautious than ever and unwilling to pay more than they believe a home is worth.
The result? A market where neither side is particularly willing to bridge that gap. With fewer buyers actively participating, sellers need to shift from testing the market to competing for the buyers who are actually in it.
That means pricing strategically from day one, making sure your home shows exceptionally well, and having a strong marketing plan that helps it stand out.
Final Thoughts
This market remains challenging for both buyers and sellers. But that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong time to make a move. It simply means having the right strategy matters more than ever.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling, develop a plan that reflects today’s market conditions, not what worked a few years ago.
DM me to set up a 30-minute strategy session. We’ll talk through your goals, review your options, and determine the best next steps for your situation.